NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Hurricane Activity for the 2023 Atlantic Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has announced near-normal hurricane activity for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30. NOAA suggests a 40% chance of a near-normal season, with a 30% chance of both above-normal and below-normal activity. Of the estimated 12 to 17 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, 5 to 9 could grow into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Out of these, 1 to 4 could become major hurricanes with category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Factors Contributing to the Forecast
NOAA has indicated two factors responsible for the predicted hurricane activity during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. These include competing factors – some that suppress storm development and others that fuel it. A high potential for El Nino to develop this summer is forecasted due to the absence of La Nina present for the previous three seasons. El Nino has the potential to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity; therefore, the Atlantic hurricane activity can be stagnant this year.
Factors Contributing to Favorable Atlantic Storm Conditions
Despite these factors, favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin can offset El Nino’s potential influence on storm development. The potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves, is among such beneficial conditions. These African easterly waves tend to seed the stronger and more extended-lasting Atlantic storms. Additionally, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy, fueling storm development.
Upcoming Improvements in Forecasting Accuracy
NOAA is making several improvements to its operational supercomputing system to provide communities with more advanced and accurate forecasts in the coming years. By expanding the capacity of its system by 20%, NOAA will improve current models and introduce more complex forecast models.
Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to Become Operational
By end of June 2023, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. In partnership with the National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center, HAFS will improve track forecasts during hurricanes and provide better storm surge forecasting models.
Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Upgrade
Forecasters will have the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously for contiguous US areas and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This upgrade helps forecasters recognize flooding likelihood or probability for various scenarios, including near worst-case scenarios.
Other Improvements to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting
The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic, which shows tropical cyclone formation potential, has expanded forecast range from 5 to 7 days.
Additional Upgrades
Additional upgrades or new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting include:
- The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic;
- The potential for an above-normal west African monsoon;
- The longer term variability of Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development – known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes – which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
Central Pacific Hurricane Season Predicted to be Slightly Busier
In the northern hemisphere, the NOAA predicts at least 4 to 7 tropical cyclones during this year’s central Pacific hurricane season, located just north of the equator between 140W and the International Date Line. The forecast indicates a 50% chance of an above-normal tropical cyclone activity season. Once again, El Nino’s potential influence on storm development is cited, which is predicted to enter the region this summer.
Forecast Range Extension
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is extending the tropical weather outlook forecast range from five to seven days. This forecast extension provides emergency managers with more time to create appropriate response strategies to tropical cyclones.
Conclusion
The Atlantic 2023 hurricane season’s expected normalcy is generally good news. Nonetheless, communities should always remain alert and prepared for potential tropical cyclones. Due to climate change, the importance of NOAA’s forecasts has become increasingly critical with time. With its advanced technological systems and improved forecasting, NOAA remains dedicated to ensuring that communities have sufficient information needed to prepare for and adequately respond to the destructive effects of Atlantic hurricanes.
FAQs
Q1. What is the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecasted to be?
NOAA has forecasted the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to be a near-normal season with 40% chance as normal season, 30% higher above-normal season, and 30% lower below-normal season this year.
Q2. What are the contributing factors to predicted hurricane activity during the season?
The absence of La Nina in the past three season has led to a high potential for the development of El Nino this summer, influencing the Atlantic hurricane activity. West African monsoons and warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic tend to fuel storms and seed stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic storms.
Q3. What are NOAA’s computer systems improvements for providing better forecasts?
Noaa is improving its supercomputing system by enhancing capacity by 20%. This increase in computing power will enable NOAA to run better and more complex forecast models with advanced physics and improved data assimilation, giving advanced warning to emergency management systems.
Q4. Are there any tools available for improving hurricane analysis and forecasting?
NOAA uses the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic which shows the potential of tropical cyclone formations. Additionally, there is an above-normal West African monsoon, longer-term variability in atmospheric and oceanic conditions conducive to more hurricanes since 1995, and the Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade for contiguous US and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Q5. What is the predicted central Pacific hurricane season in 2023?
NOAA forecasts 4 to 7 tropical cyclones for the 2023 central Pacific hurricane season, with a 50% chance of an above-normal tropical cyclone season and a 35% chance as normal season and 15% below-normal season.
