NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Hurricane Activity in 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting near-normal activity. The hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30, is expected to see a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher and 5 to 9 hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher. Below is an outline of the article:
Introduction
- NOAA predicts near-normal hurricane activity in 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
- Outlook for the hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30
- NOAA forecasts a range of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes
Factors Affecting the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Competing Factors
- Factors that suppress storm development
- Factors that fuel storm development
El Nino Potential
- NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer
- El Nino can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity
- Offset by favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic Basin
West African Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperatures
- Above-normal west African monsoon produces African easterly waves and longer-lived Atlantic storms
- Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea create more energy to fuel storm development
- Part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions conducive to hurricane development
NOAA Upgrades and Improvements for Hurricane Season
Expanded Supercomputing System Capacity
- 20% increase in computing capability
- Improves and runs more complex forecast models
New Hurricane Forecast Model
- Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) becomes operational in late June
- Jointly created by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center
- 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models
Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Upgrade
- Advances storm surge forecasting for contiguous U.S. and new forecasts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
- Provides likelihood or probability of various flooding scenarios
Additional Upgrades and New Tools
- Tropical Weather Outlook graphic expands forecast range from five to seven days
- Extended tropical cyclone outlook provides more time to prepare for storms
- Additional upgrades or new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting
Conclusion
NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season predicts near-normal activity with a range of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Competing factors that suppress and fuel storm development, as well as favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic Basin, will influence the hurricane season. NOAA has implemented a series of upgrades and improvements, including a new hurricane forecast model and extended tropical cyclone outlook. These upgrades and improvements will provide more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive impacts of Atlantic hurricanes.
FAQs
1. What is NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
NOAA predicts near-normal hurricane activity with a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
2. How many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is NOAA forecasting for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.
3. What are the factors affecting the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
Competing factors that suppress and fuel storm development, as well as favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic Basin, will influence the hurricane season.
4. What upgrades and improvements has NOAA implemented for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
NOAA has implemented a series of upgrades and improvements, including a new hurricane forecast model and extended tropical cyclone outlook, to provide more accurate forecasts and help communities prepare for and respond to the destructive impacts of Atlantic hurricanes.
5. Why is NOAA’s outlook and upgrades for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season important?
NOAA’s outlook and upgrades for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season provide communities with the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive impacts of hurricanes. With a changing climate, accurate forecasts and advanced warning systems have never been more crucial.
