The 2026 Oscar Predictions are heating up, and the Supporting Actor category is shaping up to be a thrilling competition. With several strong contenders vying for a nomination, the stakes are high. Recently, one frontrunner received a significant boost, solidifying their position in the race. As we approach the announcement of the 98th Academy Award nominations on January 22, 2026, we examine the current state of the Supporting Actor category and explore the top contenders.
Current State of the Supporting Actor Category
The 2026 Oscar Predictions for Supporting Actor are based on a combination of factors, including recent awards and nominations from guilds, critics, and industry experts. Gold Derby’s predictions have taken into account the combined forecasts of experts, editors, and top users with the best accuracy scores from last year. According to Gold Derby, the top 15 Best Supporting Actor hopefuls are listed in order of their odds, with Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn considered to have “locked in” what they need for an Oscar nomination.
The current standings are a result of various awards and nominations, setting the stage for the Oscar nominations.
Key Statistics and Trends
Historically, winners of the Critics Choice Awards have had a strong track record at the Oscars, with every winner in a category being nominated and 20 of them going on to win the Oscar. Similarly, Golden Globe winners in a category have rarely missed an Oscar nomination, with only two instances in the last 50 years where a winner failed to get nominated. These statistics are particularly relevant for Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn, who have all received critical acclaim for their performances. Meanwhile, Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo are emerging as dark horse contenders, with Caton receiving a surprise SAG nod and Lindo making the BAFTA longlist. The trends indicate a strong competition in the Supporting Actor category.
Frontrunners and Dark Horses
As the competition heats up, Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn remain strong frontrunners, but Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo are gaining momentum. Caton’s surprise SAG nod and Lindo’s BAFTA longlist inclusion have put them in the conversation, and it’s possible that they could upset the frontrunners. With the 98th Academy Awards set to air on March 15, 2026, on ABC, the stakes are high, and the competition is fierce. As we await the announcement of the nominations, one thing is certain: the Supporting Actor category is shaping up to be an exciting and unpredictable competition.
The recent awards and nominations have also provided insight into the Best Picture category, with “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” emerging as top contenders. However, the Supporting Actor category remains a closely contested competition, with several strong performances vying for a nomination. With the nominations announcement just around the corner, the tension is building, and the question on everyone’s mind is: who will ultimately receive a nomination for Best Supporting Actor?
The predictions will likely continue to shift as the nominations announcement approaches, but one thing is clear: the 2026 Oscar Predictions for Supporting Actor are shaping up to be a thrilling competition.
The 98th Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. PT) by actress Danielle Brooks and actor Lewis Pullman. The announcement will be broadcast on Oscar.com, Oscars.org, the Academy’s social media channels, Good Morning America, ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu.
As we continue to monitor the 2026 Oscar Predictions, it’s essential to stay up-to-date on the latest developments and analysis. With the competition heating up, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the frontrunners and dark horses in the Supporting Actor category. Will Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn secure their nominations, or will Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo pull off an upset?
The 2026 Oscar Predictions for Supporting Actor are just one part of the overall Oscar competition. As we move closer to the nominations announcement, we’ll be providing in-depth analysis and updates on all the major categories. Stay tuned for more insights and expert analysis on the 2026 Oscars.
Analyzing the Impact of Guild Awards on Oscar Predictions
The recent guild awards have had a significant impact on the 2026 Oscar predictions for Supporting Actor. The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards have historically been strong predictors of Oscar nominations. A look at the SAG nominations reveals that Miles Caton received a surprise nod, which has boosted his chances of an Oscar nomination. Similarly, the Critics Choice Awards have a stellar track record, with every winner in a category being nominated for an Oscar.
| Award | Winner/ Nominee | Category |
| — | — | — |
| Critics Choice Awards | Benicio Del Toro | Best Supporting Actor |
| SAG Awards | Miles Caton | Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role |
| Golden Globe Awards | Paul Mescal | Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture |
The Role of International Titles and Stars in the Oscar Race
The major guild awards mostly overlooked international titles and stars that were in the Best Picture race. However, the Golden Globes “redeemed” some of these international titles that were overlooked by the guild awards. This shift in attention could potentially impact the Oscar nominations, particularly in the Supporting Actor category, where international actors and films are often strongly represented. For instance, Delroy Lindo, who made the BAFTA longlist, could benefit from this increased focus on international talent.
Expert Insights and Predictions
According to Gold Derby’s predictions, the top 15 Best Supporting Actor hopefuls are listed in order of their odds. Experts, editors, and top users with the best accuracy scores from last year have weighed in on the predictions. While Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn remain strong frontrunners, Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo are emerging as dark horse contenders. To gain a deeper understanding of the predictions, it’s essential to consider the expertise of industry professionals and analysts.
Conclusion
As the 2026 Oscar nominations approach, the Supporting Actor category is shaping up to be a thrilling competition. With Benicio Del Toro, Paul Mescal, and Sean Penn as strong frontrunners, and Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo as dark horse contenders, the stakes are high. The guild awards and Critics Choice Awards have had a significant impact on the predictions, and the Golden Globes have added an international twist to the race. As we await the announcement of the 98th Academy Award nominations on January 22, 2026, one thing is certain – the competition for the Supporting Actor Oscar will be fierce.
The 98th Academy Awards will air on March 15, 2026, on ABC, with Conan O’Brien returning as host. With the nominations announcement just around the corner, the excitement is building, and the outcome will undoubtedly be influenced by the impressive performances and critical acclaim received by the contenders. Ultimately, the Supporting Actor category promises to be an exciting and closely contested competition, and only time will tell who will take home the coveted Oscar.
